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The main outcome of the European Central Bank's meeting clarified the timing of the monetary easing cycle. The first interest rate cut is planned for June. Overall, this aligns with market expectations, so the euro did not sharply drop. Especially considering that the single currency is already significantly oversold locally. Nevertheless, the dollar will gradually strengthen in the medium term. Of course, there will be various corrections and stagnant periods along this path, but ultimately, the dollar will come closer to parity. Speaking of corrections, this will likely happen today, both due to the overbought nature of the US currency and the empty economic calendar.
The EUR/USD actively shows a bearish bias during the week, with movement reaching 1.5%. As a result, the quote hit the support level of 1.0700.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is hovering in the oversold zone, which suggests that the instrument may be due for a price correction.
On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, corresponding to the direction of the bearish cycle.
In order to increase the volume of short positions despite aignals of oversold conditions, the price must settle below the level of 1.0700. Otherwise, the level will act as support, leading to a bounce.
In terms of complex indicator analysis, indicators point to a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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