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The test of the 1.1225 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right time to enter a short position on the euro. As a result, the pair rose and then fell toward the target level of 1.1211.
The single currency lost support following a series of unfavorable economic releases. The current account balance for August came in at €8.7 billion, compared with the expected €25.2 billion, while business sentiment also disappointed. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 28.1 in October, while the eurozone's index declined to 18.5. However, the acceleration in German producer prices is particularly concerning. In September, producer prices rose by 1.9% month-on-month, compared with a forecast of 1.5% and a previous reading of 1.1%. On an annual basis, they increased by 6.7%, up from 4.6%. Rising industrial costs are adding to consumer inflationary pressures, while the ECB must assess these developments against the backdrop of a weakening economy.
The US economic calendar for the second half of the day is focused entirely on the housing market, and this data could affect the dollar's exchange rate and, consequently, EUR/USD. Traders will soon receive figures on building permits and housing starts for September. In my view, if the housing data disappoint, the dollar will have a reason to correct lower, allowing EUR/USD to rise. If the figures exceed expectations, however, the US currency will recover some of its lost ground.
As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1217 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1234. At 1.1234, the plan is to close the position and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.
Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1203 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1217 and 1.1234.
Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1203 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1186, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.
Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1217 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1203 and 1.1186.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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