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A price test at 158.28 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the 158.49 target area.
The weak US NAHB index did not become a problem for the dollar against the yen. Builder confidence fell 3 points to 29, current sales lost 2 points to 33, six-month expectations dropped 5 points to 32, and buyer traffic fell 5 points to 18. All this indicates that high mortgage costs are cooling demand, but for USD/JPY the key drivers remain US inflation, Federal Reserve policy and bond yields — the housing index is too secondary to move the pair materially.
Today the yen's key theme was Japan's fiscal policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reiterated she will not rely on special deficit-covering bonds to finance a cut in the consumption tax on food. She said the government's position is unchanged and clarified her remarks after some publications distorted their meaning. The day before, she rejected allegations that her policies caused yen weakness or higher yields. The market is watching because the tax reduction would cost roughly £5 trillion a year; the question is how it will be financed, since new borrowing would further increase an already heavy debt load. I think Takaichi's words provide some partial support to the yen, but the main reference for USD/JPY remains the US currency.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy USD/JPY today near 158.25 (green line on the chart), targeting 158.49 (thicker green line). I will exit long positions at 158.49 and open short positions there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement. It is best to return to buying on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 158.00 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 158.25 and 158.49.
Scenario 1: Sell USD/JPY only after a break below 158.00 (red line). That should lead to a rapid decline. Sellers' key target is 157.68, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Sellers can return at any time — you need some hint from the central bank. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 158.25 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal down. Expect declines to 158.00 and 157.68.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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