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On Monday, AUD/USD continued to strengthen, holding near the 200-day EMA around 0.6980; at the time of writing, the pair was up about 0.51%. The Australian dollar is supported by hawkish remarks from an Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) official and stronger-than-expected Chinese growth data — China is Australia's key trading partner.
RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent pointed to convincing signs that the neutral interest rate has risen both in Australia and globally. Such comments imply policy may need to remain tighter for longer than previously expected, which is positive for the Australian dollar. The neutral rate is the level at which policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. A higher neutral rate means the RBA has less room to ease policy without risking a reacceleration of inflation.
At the same time, positive macro data from China bolster optimism about the Australian dollar. China's Q3 GDP rose 4.5% year-on-year, beating market expectations and accelerating from 4.3% in the prior quarter. These results point to sustained growth momentum in the world's second-largest economy despite ongoing domestic and external headwinds. That matters for the Australian dollar because of Australia's close trade ties with China and its reliance on Chinese demand for commodities, especially iron ore.
Steady business activity in China and a relatively hawkish RBA tone create a favorable backdrop for the Australian dollar. Stronger Chinese demand can support Australian exports, while expectations of a longer-lasting tight RBA policy can improve the appeal of Australian assets to international investors.
However, AUD/USD remains sensitive to US dollar developments. The key driver for this pair is the policy differential between the RBA and the Federal Reserve: any revision to US rate expectations could weaken the Australian dollar's upside. Market participants should therefore monitor macro data and central-bank commentary to judge how durable the current favorable conditions for AUD recovery are.
Technically, on the daily chart, oscillators are negative, giving bears the edge. But a break above the confluence of the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA would reduce selling pressure. The round level 0.7000 is also important—a clear break above it should drive price toward the confluence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs, where bulls would have a better chance to gain control. For now, support sits in the 0.6950–0.6900 zone. Below that, price could accelerate lower toward 0.6860.
The table below shows Monday's percentage change of the Australian dollar versus major currencies. AUD's largest gain was against the euro.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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