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The price test at 1.1365 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1365 triggered Buy Scenario No. 2, which produced a roughly 15-pip rise.
Yesterday's remarks by European officials did not help the euro. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde spoke fairly clearly about rising bond yields and the future path of monetary policy, but that was not enough. The dollar-bet and the persistent yield gap between the US and the eurozone still did their work and kept pressure on EUR/USD. I believe the issue isn't the content of Lagarde's speech, but that the market already views the dollar as the stronger asset. As long as US yields rise faster than eurozone yields, any words from the ECB chief will be background noise rather than a reason to buy the euro.
Today the euro again has no eurozone macro releases, and this is not the first consecutive day traders have nothing to latch onto in the calendar. In such circumstances, the focus naturally shifts from numbers to words — namely the rhetoric of European officials — because in the absence of data their comments set the tone for trading the pair. Two speeches are scheduled today: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and ECB President Christine Lagarde. I do not expect anything fundamentally new from Lagarde — her policy stance is already well read by the market, and she will most likely stick to cautious, general formulations without clear signals on next steps. I would pay much closer attention to Nagel. He traditionally takes a firmer, more hawkish tone within the ECB Governing Council. If he again sounds uncompromising today, it could remind the market that not all members favor easing, cooling sellers and slowing the euro's decline even if it does not decisively reverse the trend.
Overall, the euro remains hostage to the dollar's mood and to expectations about the rate paths on both sides of the Atlantic. Until significant data appear in the calendar, verbal interventions by officials will determine the pair's intraday direction.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
No 1: Buy the euro today around 1.1368 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1391. I plan to exit at 1.1391 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry. Expect euro gains only after a hawkish tone from policymakers. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and has just begun to rise.
No 2: Also buy the euro if the price tests 1.1355 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 1.1368 and 1.1391.
No 1: Sell the euro after it reaches 1.1355 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1334, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move). Pressure on the pair will resume if Lagarde takes a dovish stance. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and has just begun to fall.
No 2: Also sell the euro if the price tests 1.1368 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward 1.1355 and 1.1334.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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