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Bitcoin and Ether posted another sharp rise and are becoming closer to a proper bull trend. We still cannot identify clear reasons for the latest surge in digital assets. The two most important recent developments for crypto were arguably negative: central banks (notably the Fed) have started monetary tightening, which typically boosts demand for safe assets like bank deposits and government bonds, and the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to regulate crypto investment in the US, failed to clear the Senate cloture vote. By conventional logic the crypto market should have fallen, not exploded higher. But as we have warned before, pumps do not require reasons, and their moves often defy logic.
Meanwhile, former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor reappeared on the scene. He first hinted in social channels at forthcoming Bitcoin purchases and then declared that, in his view, Bitcoin is superior to gold. Saylor explained that gold is costly and difficult to store and transport, even though it remains a primary store of value because of its scarcity and durability. The metal also incurs substantial costs for auditing and custody—expenses that Bitcoin does not require. Saylor dismissed fiat money as unattractive because it is controlled by authorities who can print unlimited amounts. He also warned that transfers in fiat can be blocked and funds frozen by authorities or banks and that purchasing power erodes over time.
Bitcoin, he argued, is free of these drawbacks: it is governed by protocol, not politicians, and its supply is strictly capped. Saylor claimed network participants cannot control the price, though from our perspective that is not strictly true—recent rallies show large capital can indeed move the asset. In any case, the former MicroStrategy chief again highlighted Bitcoin's advantages over fiat and gold and urged readers to buy the first cryptocurrency.
Trading recommendations for BTC/USD
Bitcoin is still showing signs of a nascent bull trend that began with a pump lacking clear rationale. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the CLARITY Act failed to pass. On the daily chart, Bitcoin may already be in a corrective phase because price reacted to a bearish fair value gap. Also note the current break above the daily channel may be a deviation—a deep deviation, but a deviation nonetheless. If so, Bitcoin can still fall back toward $57,500. On the 4-hour chart traders can consider long entries off the most recent bullish FVG, but no signal has yet formed; any potential signal will need confirmation on the M30 time frame in the form of a break of the down structure and bullish patterns.
Trading recommendations for ETH/USD
On the daily time frame, the technical picture for Ether has changed dramatically in a few days: Ether may now be starting a new uptrend. Yet, traders should primarily reference the weekly chart, where Ether could head to $4,800—the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. The nearest bearish FVG on the daily chart has been worked off, but it belongs to the previous trend; any price reaction to it would likely be corrective. We also note liquidity removal at the April 17 high and liquidity events on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin also cleared liquidity on the 4-hour. Thus a correction is likely, and a flat has formed on Ether's 4-hour chart. Inside that flat, internal patterns have limited significance; anticipate a test of the lower boundary in the near term.
Illustration notes
CHOCH — a break in trend structure.
Liquidity — stop losses, pending orders, and other liquidity market makers use to build positions.
FVG — an area of price inefficiency that price moves through rapidly when one side is absent; price later tends to return and react at such areas in continuation of the trend.
IFVG — inverted fair value gap. On return to such an area, the price does not react but breaks through impulsively, then tests from the other side.
OB — order block: a candle where a market maker entered to take liquidity and establish a position in the opposite direction.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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