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The GBP/USD pair on Friday also tried a minor correction but failed. The US dollar is now so strong that the market sees nothing around it. The main explanation for the dollar's strength remains a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve views on monetary policy, although a week and a half has passed since the first of three tightenings and the market had already priced in the rate hike before the meeting. Thus the market may keep working off this factor for a couple more months, but can such a move be called "logical"? In our view, no. Even on Friday the US dollar could have continued to rise because the one reasonably important report — durable-goods orders — came in better than expected. However, traders now ignore most macro reports and focus only on the biggest items. Therefore, the market is not currently pricing in European Central Bank tightening or the Bank of England's upcoming tightening, even though inflation remains high or rising not only in the US but also in the eurozone and the UK.
On the 5-minute TF on Friday, two sell signals were formed. Price bounced twice during the day from the 1.3259–1.3267 area, allowing traders to open short positions. By the end of the day, the pair had not shown a decisive decline, but the drop may continue today.
On the hourly TF, the GBP/USD pair continues a downward tendency that has become a full-fledged trend. The fundamental backdrop for the dollar is that the Fed signaled it is ready to continue tightening monetary policy. However, a week and a half has passed, and the market still does not want to acknowledge factors that support the British pound. Therefore, we consider the current move completely illogical.
On Monday, novice traders can remain in short positions with a target of 1.3175–1.3180 after Friday's rejections from the 1.3259–1.3267 area. Open long positions targeting 1.3319–1.3331 if price consolidates above the 1.3259–1.3267 area.
On the 5-minute TF you can trade the levels 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641. No important events are scheduled in the UK or the US on Monday, so traders will have nothing to react to. Volatility will likely be very low again.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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