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Global stock indices and futures opened lower today after the largest AI companies called for a slowdown in the development of the technology. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.8%, while South Korea's Kospi — a barometer for AI?related investment — plunged 3.4%. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics lost more than 4% each. Nasdaq?100 futures dropped 1.3%, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.6%.
The trigger was Saturday's statement by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who announced additional safety measures including independent third?party reviews and urged the industry to slow development of the most advanced models. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backed the proposal, and xAI founder Elon Musk said Amodei was right. Altman also added to the shock by telling markets that OpenAI will not IPO this year — a separate blow to SoftBank's outlook.
The market read these signals in a straightforward way. Slower development implies reduced capital spending on computing infrastructure, and that spending underpins the whole supply chain from memory makers to data?center operators. Chipmakers and infrastructure companies — whose valuations assume perpetual growth in AI investment — are the obvious losers. Paradoxically, Chinese competitors may benefit, since the call to slow down raises questions about how consistently Western industry leaders will adhere to their own appeal.
How grave is the threat to investment? Investors have grown cautious in response to the statements, since it remains unclear how far any deceleration might go. But a sharp collapse in AI R&D spending is unlikely: AI remains the dominant trend and one of the most promising long?term areas. More plausibly, as industry leaders themselves suggested, the sector is seeking a temporary slowdown to create a safer development environment rather than an outright halt.
A second shock compounded the first on the same day: oil. Brent climbed 2.2% to $106.95/bbl after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline following drone attacks and a planned Iran?Gulf meeting was postponed. Reminder: Saudi production fell last month to its lowest level since 1990.
The bond market also moved to extremes not seen in almost two decades. The 10?year US Treasury yield stands near 4.96% — the market hasn't closed above 5% since 2007. Swaps now price almost a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday versus roughly 70% last week, driven by a hotter?than?expected August inflation reading.
This week is exceptionally important: three central?bank decisions in quick succession can reshape global monetary expectations through year?end. The oil price spike — and particularly surging diesel and other refined products — feeds inflation and growth fears. The Fed and the Bank of Japan are both likely to tighten this week, creating headwinds for any global risk?asset rally and pressuring equity indices.
My base view: the Fed will hike on Wednesday, and 10?year yields will breach 5% in the next sessions. I also believe the current technology correction will be short?lived because the debate is about slowing the pace of development, not abandoning investment. Demand for compute infrastructure remains elevated. However, the real test for the sector will be the cost of money: with yields above 5%, highly stretched multiples will face reassessment regardless of managements' decisions on development pace. The main risk to this outlook is regulatory — if the slowdown call wins regulatory backing and becomes mandatory, the correction could become protracted rather than short.
Technical note on the S&P 500: today's primary task for buyers is to reclaim the immediate resistance at 7,633. Doing so would signal a recovery and open the way to a push toward 7,656. Equally important for bulls is holding control above 7,679 to strengthen the upside case. On the downside, buyers must defend around 7,607; a decisive break there would quickly drive the index back to 7,583 and open the path to 7,563.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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