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The price test of 156.18 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential — especially after the large decline observed the previous day. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.
The US services report was strong and inflationary, but the dollar will not gain support due to active currency intervention by the United States and the Bank of Japan, which has led to its weakening. For the yen, intervention remains a powerful driver of strength, as it is not a one-off episode but ongoing support for the national currency from the BOJ in coordination with the US. In my view, the intervention factor currently determines the USD/JPY price. As long as central banks maintain pressure, the yen retains the advantage, especially given the recent acceleration in Japan's services PMI and Ueda's rhetoric about policy normalization.
It is worth noting that ongoing interventions materially change the balance of power because dollar buyers against the yen must reckon with the real threat of renewed intervention. I believe that while authorities show readiness to act, USD/JPY's attempts to rise will encounter resistance. Nevertheless, I keep in mind the strong US price signal: if interventions ease, hawkish price signals from the US could quickly help the dollar regain some lost ground.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 156.50 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 157.16 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.16, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 156.10, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 156.50 and 157.16.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.10 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will return at any moment — we only need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.50 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 156.10 and 155.50.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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