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The calm before the storm is deceptive — Tuesday proved it. Wall Street closed higher, but the gains were muted: the market seemed to be deliberately conserving energy for tougher tests ahead.
The tech sector felt more confident than the rest. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the Dow Jones and S&P 500, while the industrial Dow posted a gain for the fourth time in the last five sessions. Nvidia ended its longest losing streak since 2022, rising ahead of its earnings release. Wall Street estimates put the company's revenue near $92 billion — more than many competitors generate in a year. "Nvidia is firing on all cylinders and so far doing everything right," Siebert Financial says.
Stock-index dynamics
This time, oil and bonds helped to calm fears. Brent dropped about 3.9%, returning to the $80–$90 range, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell the most since late June. Easing inflation concerns coincided with Washington's decision to send diplomats back to the Middle East — a reassuring signal. No one is expecting a full-scale escalation in Iran.
But surface calm does not eliminate internal nervousness. Derivatives traders note demand for hedges against S&P 500 volatility ahead of the midterms. Meanwhile, Ottawa retaliated with 15–50% tariffs on nearly $20 billion of US goods, and Scott Bessent's "economic D-day" on Iran left China — the main buyer of Iranian oil — largely untouched, preserving the fragile balance between the world's two largest economies.
VIX / expected volatility dynamics
In fact, the week revolves around three pressure points: July's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index on Wednesday, Nvidia's earnings after the close, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole. After July's press conference stirred the market, trust in the chair's words has waned. Wall Street warns him not to go too far in trying to curtail communication. The market expects Warsh is more likely to stick to his current line.
So, the market chose a pause instead of a move — but a pause is not the same as tranquility. Any of the three events could tip the balance either way, and risks are more balanced than predictable.
Who will be proven right in the end — the optimists banking on muted gains, or volatility traders preparing for the worst?
Technically, the S&P 500 daily chart shows a cluster within a wide-range bar for three consecutive days, indicating rising uncertainty. The broad index is compressed like a spring. Sooner or later it will fire. For now, it makes sense to place pending breakout orders for the consolidation channel: buy near 7,700, sell near 7,635.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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