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The GBP/USD currency pair remained largely immobilized on Monday, as traders had nothing to react to during the day. Given that the event calendar was empty for Monday, we anticipated little market movement. While there were some news items, none indicated a significant change in the value of the dollar or the British pound.
A key theme for the currency market remains Donald Trump's policy, which entails the creation of new conflicts worldwide. Just this past weekend, it was revealed that Canada and the U.S. failed to reach a trade deal, leading Washington to impose a 50% tariff on most Canadian imports. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa would implement reciprocal tariffs starting September 8, and the Trump administration has already begun crafting a new tariff package. If anyone has forgotten about the phenomenon known as a trade war, now is the time to refresh their memory of 2025, when the U.S. dollar fell sharply.
A new round of trade confrontation could also begin with China, with which a tenuous agreement was reached last year. Recall that in 2025, import tariffs between the two countries reached as high as 250%. This year, Trump seems to think the relationship between the U.S. and China has become too dull, hence the need to stir things up a bit. However, this time, Trump intends to combat not universal injustice against America, but rather long-suffering Iran. Trump has decided to impose a full financial blockade on Tehran, entirely cutting it off from financial flows. Since America cannot encircle Iran and generally wants to limit bloodshed in this conflict, Trump envisions that other nations should join in the confrontation against Iran. Last year, Trump did not receive support from European countries, and this year he aims to involve countries with which Tehran has allied relationships.
Primarily, this concern pertains to China, which is the main importer of Iranian oil. Trump believes that all countries doing business with Iran must immediately cease this "nonsense" and side with the U.S. We can almost 100% guarantee that Beijing does not share this view and will continue to adhere to its own political course. Since Trump has already publicly declared grand sanctions and tariffs against any country supporting Iran, it can be presumed that new tariffs and restrictions will be proposed against China. In response, Beijing will impose its own tariffs and restrictions on the U.S. Thus, the second half of 2026 may unfold under the guise of a second round of a global trade war. If anyone does not recall, the trade war was the main cause of the dollar's decline last year. Consequently, yet another factor contributing to the dollar's decline is added to an already long list.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past 5 trading days as of August 25 is 60 pips. For the pound/dollar, this value is considered "average." On Tuesday, August 25, we expect movement within a range limited by levels 1.3572 and 1.3692. The upper linear regression channel is directed upward, indicating an upward trend. The CCI indicator has once again entered the overbought zone, signaling a potential correction.
S1 – 1.3611
S2 – 1.3550
S3 – 1.3489
R1 – 1.3672
R2 – 1.3733
R3 – 1.3794
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. So far, 2026 has turned out to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors, but every tale has its end.
The weekly timeframe shows a flat market between 1.3150 and 1.3780, within the framework of a four-year upward trend, which supports continued medium-term growth of the British currency. Long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3702 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short trades can be made with targets at 1.3550 and 1.3489.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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