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The price test at 159.10 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by 15 pips.
Despite a slight downward correction in USD/JPY, the dollar rose against the yen yesterday. Scott Bessent's announcement of an "economic D-Day" against Iran, with sanctions against more than 60 organizations, helped restore demand for the pair. For the yen, the effect of the announcement was an absence of sharp movements, so the USD/JPY pair remained near previous levels before continuing to rise. As a safe haven, the yen could have benefited from a surge in tensions; however, the threat, lacking specific actions, did not prompt a flight to safety.
The further dynamics of USD/JPY will depend on whether the U.S. moves from rhetoric to real pressure on Iran, as only a real escalation around oil supplies is capable of shaking the market. At the same time, declarative measures continue to leave the Japanese currency in a calm state.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching an entry point around 159.43 (the green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 159.72 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.72, I plan to exit long positions and sell immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 159.25, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 159.43 and 159.72.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.25 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.97, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Sellers can return at any moment; they need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 159.43 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 159.25 and 158.97.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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