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The test of the 159.64 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the dollar's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell.
In the second half of the day, the market will focus on a substantial block of US economic data, including building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the capacity utilization rate. These indicators provide additional insight into the state of the economy, while industrial production and capacity utilization are particularly important for assessing the real sector. If the data is strong, demand for the dollar could increase due to rising expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy and higher US Treasury yields. For the yen, a renewed strengthening of the dollar poses a risk of further weakness, as it widens the divergence between the more hawkish Fed and the much more cautious Bank of Japan. This difference in monetary policy approaches has recently been weighing heavily on the Japanese currency, and strong US data could push USD/JPY even higher.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point is reached around 159.73 (the green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 160.14 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.14, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pair can be expected today, but the potential is relatively limited. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started moving upward from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.60 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.73 and 160.14 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 159.60 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.36 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in case of central bank intervention. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started moving downward from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.73 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.60 and 159.36 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders need to make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an initially losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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