The GBP/USD currency pair also attempted to continue its upward movement on Monday, but in the afternoon, it retreated slightly. Market volatility was again quite low, as the only notable news of the day was Iran's announcement that it was ready to remove the U.S. naval blockade by military means. Simply put, Iran is prepared to use military means to achieve its own objectives and goals. While these are still just threats directed at the U.S. and Donald Trump, we tend to trust the words of Tehran's officials more than the American president's promises. Iran has made it clear that if the U.S. fails to meet the conditions of the agreement from June 17, it will lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by force. This implies that Tehran may plan to strike American warships stationed near the strait, controlling it. One can be sure that such an act of aggression will not go unanswered by Washington. However, as we've already mentioned, Iran and the U.S. could freely engage in conflict for a couple more years. It is naive to think that the dollar will continue to rise solely on geopolitical grounds during this time. The American currency is currently driven by completely different factors, which we regularly outline.
From a technical standpoint, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly timeframe. In the long term, the pair is in a sideways channel and continues to move from the lower boundary of this channel to the upper. Thus, the nearest target is at 1.3588, but this level does not appear to be a "final stop." The dollar may experience periodic corrections, but we do not expect any significant strengthening.
On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Monday. The price moved mostly sideways during the day and did not approach any significant lines or levels.
COT reports for the British pound show that, for several months, non-commercial traders have dominated the market, selling. The net position remains negative despite the ongoing long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for riskier currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics could sustain demand for the U.S. dollar in the near term. However, we would not expect a significant decline in the pair until it firmly settles below the trend line.
In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as seen clearly on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, directly and indirectly, at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as indicated by the trend line. The price has recently interacted with this line and has rebounded from it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 11), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,300 BUY contracts and 8,600 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to develop its upward trend, as indicated by the trend line. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" bullish and have been trading within sideways channels for a full year. This does not negate the upward trend that began in 2022. We expect the British pound to continue to grow in the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price settles below the trend line.
For August 18, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3471) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3520) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set the stop-loss to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, the UK will release data that can be considered relatively important. Primarily, this includes the unemployment rate, which may decrease to 4.8%. Secondly, there will be information on changes in the unemployment rate and wage growth rates. In the U.S., reports on labor, ADP employment, building permits issued, and housing starts will be released today. We consider all reports, except for unemployment, to be secondary.
Today, traders can open short positions targeting 1.3465-1.3480 if the price settles below the Kijun-sen line. Long positions can be opened in the event of a price rebound from the critical line, targeting 1.3588.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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