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The wave structure of GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of an upward trend segment. The corrective A-B-C structure has presumably been completed. If this is indeed the case, a new upward trend segment has begun to develop. Wave C took a relatively weak form, but in my view, this was entirely due to the fundamental backdrop. Nothing positive for the U.S. currency, apart from geopolitics, has occurred in 2026. The market extracted the maximum possible benefit from the fundamental factors that at least theoretically supported the dollar. Even so, this was only enough to produce a corrective structure. The A-B-C structure is global, which is why the dollar's strengthening this year looks impressive on the lower timeframes. In reality, however, we have seen only a correction that lasted six months.
On the lower timeframe (upper chart), the development of an upward wave sequence began as early as June 24. It already looks like the beginning of an impulsive trend segment. Therefore, it could develop into a very extended structure, with its targets significantly above the peaks of waves B and 5 (lower chart). Accordingly, my readers can expect GBP/USD to rise above the 1.39 level over the next six months to one year.
GBP/USD rose by 70 basis points during Friday's session. Demand for the British currency began increasing in the morning, when no important news or economic data had been released. Yesterday, the UK released far from encouraging GDP and industrial production reports for the second quarter, but British economic data is not what is currently occupying traders' attention. Everything comes down to the dollar and the U.S. fundamental backdrop. While geopolitics was favorable for the U.S. currency, demand for it increased as a "safe haven." Once the active phase of the military conflict in the Middle East ended and Iran and the United States found themselves at an impasse with no solution that would satisfy both sides, markets concluded that there would be no new war, but neither would there be peace accompanied by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict will simply be frozen, as I warned several months ago.
What does a "frozen" conflict mean? The sides will maintain their respective positions, and the conflict could flare up again with renewed intensity at any time in the future. It is simply not the right time for that now. Donald Trump has congressional elections approaching, and if the war cannot be brought to an end through a deal, the next best option is to divert public attention away from the issue. At the beginning of the year, Trump diverted public attention from the "Epstein case" (in which he himself is involved) by focusing on the war with Iran, and now he will attempt to divert public attention from his own failure in the Middle East by focusing on another issue. In any case, market participants are no longer expecting a full-scale war, while the capital that fled to safe-haven assets in the spring of 2026 has already moved to safety. Therefore, the dollar has lost its main source of support. The Fed provided some support for the dollar for a while, but eventually the market lost confidence in the prospect of monetary policy tightening in the near future. As for Iran, it is also simply waiting—waiting for the Republican Party to lose its absolute control of the U.S. Congress.
The wave structure of GBP/USD has become completely clear. We now see a clear corrective A-B-C structure on the charts, and it has been completed. Therefore, I expect a new upward wave sequence to develop. It is taking an impulsive form and corresponds to the impulsive structure of EUR/USD. If this is the case, the pound is currently in the third wave, while the targets for the entire trend segment are above the 1.39 level. Over the coming months, I am considering only long positions.
The higher-timeframe wave structure looks almost ideal. The corrective A-B-C trend segment has been completed. If this is indeed the case, a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun to develop. In this scenario, we can expect a prolonged rise in the pound.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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