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The wave structure remains "bearish," although this may seem unusual. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave, which is still forming, has not broken above the previous high. Thus, the bears remain in control of the market, although they may lose this advantage soon. In my view, the "bearish" impulse of 2026 has ended, and only geopolitical developments could prevent the bulls from continuing the upward movement. The geopolitical situation remains uncertain.
There was no significant news flow on Monday, but bullish traders were not affected by this. Friday's weak Nonfarm Payrolls report was sufficient to support further gains on Monday. There will be very little news from the US and the UK today, and none of it is considered particularly important. Therefore, traders will have to wait until tomorrow, when the US Consumer Price Index will be released. Tomorrow's inflation data will determine whether the US dollar strengthens or weakens. If inflation comes in above the market expectation of 3.4% year-on-year, this would mean that the slowdown in June was temporary. If inflation comes in below market expectations, it would mark a second consecutive slowdown in consumer prices. In the first case, the FOMC could return to considering tighter monetary policy, while in the second case, it could move further away from this approach. Depending on the inflation reading, the US dollar could either strengthen or weaken. I expect inflation to slow, which would put pressure on the US dollar and allow bullish traders to continue supporting the pair's upward movement. In my view, the British pound currently has an advantage over the US dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has consolidated above the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. Therefore, the upward movement could now continue toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3538. A close above this level would provide confirmation that a bullish movement has begun and could continue for several months. No emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among Non-commercial traders became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,446, while the number of Short positions increased by 13,446. The current difference between the number of Long and Short positions is approximately 55,000 versus 113,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, although the bears still have a significant advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but this is now less certain because the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not expect a "bearish" trend in the pound, but in the near term, the direction of the pair will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had adjusted to expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the US failed without making significant progress. It is also uncertain whether they will resume in the near future.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
On August 11, the economic calendar contains one event of limited importance. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be extremely weak or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible following a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3557 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3454–1.3458. Buying was possible following a close above the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3557. The target has been reached. New long positions are possible following a close above the 1.3526–1.3557 level.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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