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The price test at 1.3502 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair rose by 20 pips.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric failed to exert sufficient pressure on the British pound; however, it certainly limited its upside potential against the US dollar. In an interview, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack suggested that several rate hikes might be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target. This sentiment partly provoked the strengthening of the American currency, as the prospect of a higher rate traditionally increases its attractiveness.
Today, the UK economic calendar is once again empty, leaving the pound without its own drivers. In the absence of internal stimuli, pound buyers have a chance to sustain the bullish market, especially since the British currency is already benefiting from recent upward momentum. However, the key condition remains the dollar's behavior, and its upward turnaround amid the Fed's hawkish rhetoric could limit this move until the end of the European session.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3514 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3545 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3545, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). One can expect pound growth today after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy pounds today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3500 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3514 and 1.3545.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3500 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3468, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell pounds today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3514, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3500 and 1.3468.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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