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The GBP/USD pair was largely motionless throughout Thursday. The volatility was no more than 40 pips, a trivial amount for the British pound, indicating almost a complete absence of movement. Thus, there is practically nothing to analyze from the previous day. There were no significant publications in the UK or the US, nor any geopolitical news items. According to unconfirmed reports, negotiations between Oman and Iran over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the designation of shipping routes are ongoing; however, only the oil market is reacting to this information. Currency traders see nothing significant in this news as long as the overall conflict between the US and Iran persists. This conflict could continue for a very long time. Therefore, traders currently seek any information that would allow them to draw conclusions about the future monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed is of primary importance to traders, and in recent weeks, "hawkish" market sentiment has begun to subside.
On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Thursday. Formally, the British pound settled below the area of 1.3456-1.3476, but a consolidation just 5 pips below an important area can hardly be considered significant. There were no movements in the GBP/USD pair yesterday, so there was nothing to trade.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains an upward trend. In our view, the British pound will continue to rise, even if local factors do not provide support. On the weekly timeframe, the movement from the lower boundary of the consolidation channel to the upper boundary has been ongoing for a month. This movement is not yet complete. Confidence in a Fed rate hike in September is fading; the market is no longer paying attention to geopolitical issues, and technical factors support the British pound's growth.
On Friday, novice traders may open short positions if a more convincing consolidation develops below the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. Long positions can be considered if there is consolidation above the 1.3456-1.3476 area, with targets at 1.3587-1.3598.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently take place around the levels of 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. There are no important events planned in the UK on Friday, while the US will release significant labor market and unemployment reports. These reports will determine whether the Fed will tighten its policy in the near future. We remind novice traders that a rate hike is a "bullish" factor for the currency.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.
Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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