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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded on Friday from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3397, reversed in favor of the pound, and consolidated above the 1.3454–1.3458 level. As a result, the upward move may continue on Monday toward the 1.3526–1.3557 resistance level. If the pair consolidates below the 1.3454–1.3458 level, traders may expect a modest decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3397.
The wave structure remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. This indicates that the bears have taken control of the market, although they could lose the initiative again in the near future. In my view, the bearish impulse that dominated the first half of 2026 has already run its course, and only geopolitical developments could prevent the bulls from extending their advance. Geopolitical conditions remain highly uncertain.
There was virtually no significant news on Friday, and traders continued to digest the policy signals from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. In my opinion, the market's reaction reflected how traders currently view the policy guidance of the two central banks. Confidence that the FOMC will continue tightening monetary policy is gradually fading, while expectations of further policy tightening by the Bank of England are strengthening.
Earlier in 2026, the U.S. dollar regularly benefited from safe-haven demand amid the conflict in the Middle East. However, for several months now, the market has become less driven by geopolitical headlines. At the end of last week, Donald Trump decided to cancel a planned new military operation against Iran, reducing the immediate risk of further escalation. Nevertheless, the distinction between escalation and de-escalation has become increasingly blurred. The conflict itself continues, and that remains the key issue. Commercial shipping still cannot pass freely and safely through the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices continue to fluctuate sharply as markets react to changing signals from the White House. This week, market participants will closely monitor any new negotiations between Iran and the United States, as well as the U.S. employment and unemployment reports.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD advanced to the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. A rebound from this area would favor the U.S. dollar and support a decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level would open the way for further gains toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the technical indicators.
Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculative traders declined by 2,824 contracts, while Short positions increased by 6,429 contracts. The overall positioning now stands at approximately 61,000 Long positions versus 126,000 Short positions. Although bears still maintain a significant advantage, the gap has been gradually narrowing. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestioned, but the changing fundamental backdrop has made the outlook less clear.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, market direction will depend less on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, and more on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. Over recent months, markets had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before making any meaningful progress. There is also no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
United States
On August 3, the economic calendar contains only one event that can be considered significant. The economic data is expected to influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday's trading session.
Sell: Short positions may be considered if the pair closes below the 1.3454–1.3458 level on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348.
Buy: Long positions became valid after the rebound from 1.3397, with targets at 1.3458 and 1.3526. The first target has already been reached. Existing long positions may continue to be held with the second target remaining in focus.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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