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The GBP/USD currency pair also exhibited impressive growth on Wednesday evening and Thursday. In the article about EUR/USD, we thoroughly analyzed the FOMC meeting and concluded that the market is gradually becoming disillusioned with Kevin Warsh's ability to raise the key rate. Thus, the fall of the American currency does not surprise us. Moreover, regardless of the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, we believe that the British pound will continue to appreciate.
Two technical factors support this view. Firstly, the flat market remains in place on the weekly and daily time frames, and price has recently tested the lower end of the sideways channel. Thus, it is reasonable to expect movement toward the upper boundary. Secondly, we observed a significant rise in the British currency from June 24 to July 15, followed by a bearish correction. It is quite possible that an upward trend has begun, and Wednesday evening marked a new phase in that trend. As for the fundamental justification for such a move, there is none, just as there was none for the dollar's rise a month and a half ago. The conflict in the Middle East has entered a phase that may last for years. Neither Tehran nor Washington intends to concede on key issues of the dispute. Thus, the situation is described as a "stalemate." Donald Trump cannot simply retreat, nor can he achieve his goals. Consequently, the conflict will drag on for a long time, and the market has had ample time to price this in fully.
Yesterday, the BoE held a meeting whose results were not surprising, much like the outcomes of the FOMC meeting. The key rate remained unchanged, but three members of the Monetary Committee voted for policy tightening. Three out of nine. Almost half. Experts expected only two hawks, and we assumed that the BoE's stance would shift toward a dovish position. However, the British central bank still anticipates an acceleration of inflation in the second half of 2026, as Andrew Bailey previously stated. Therefore, while the consumer price index remains at 2.6%, hawkish sentiments are moderate. As soon as inflation begins to accelerate, the BoE may return to tightening monetary policy.
Strangely, this information had no impact on the British pound. The UK currency only began to rise after the publication of a disappointing US GDP report for the second quarter. The American economy grew by just 1.5%, and Trump's "golden age" has yet to arrive. Thus, the BoE meeting means no more for the market than the European Central Bank meeting, which has already begun tightening monetary policy and may continue in September. Since the market is currently reacting selectively to fundamentals and macroeconomic data, we believe it's best to rely on technical analysis when making trading decisions. Technically, the rise of the British currency would be logical. However, it cannot be overlooked that European currencies have also begun to appreciate.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 76 pips. This value is considered "average" for the pound/dollar pair. On Friday, July 31, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3350 and 1.3502. The upper linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone due to a rapid increase over the last two days. Thus, a small correction would not be out of place.
S1 – 1.3428
S2 – 1.3367
S3 – 1.3306
R1 – 1.3489
R2 – 1.3550
R3 – 1.3611
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect growth in the US dollar in the long term. The year 2026 is still proving to be super positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors, but every fairytale comes to an end. However, on the weekly time frame, there remains a flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, which suggests continued growth of the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3502 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading on the downside can be pursued with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3229.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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