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The EUR/USD currency pair traded rather calmly on Tuesday, although in the second half of the day we did see a surge in market volatility. In this article, we would typically analyze the inflation report or the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh; however, what inflation or monetary policy can we even discuss right now when the Middle East is ablaze once again?
Interestingly, neither Tehran nor Washington has officially exited the negotiation process. Aside from Donald Trump's statements, whose tone can change five times a day, no official has announced a renewal of war. In simpler terms, no one wants war, but it seems that fighting is inevitable because there is no other way out of this completely deadlocked situation.
Iran wants to have complete and unilateral control over the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, any vessel attempting to pass through it, bypassing certain routes defined by Tehran or without the appropriate permission, is immediately attacked. Washington, as a "global guarantor of security," feels compelled to respond to such acts of terrorism, as if it were not itself that started this war. Washington responds, and Iran views these American attacks as a violation of the "ceasefire," immediately launching missiles and drones at U.S. military bases. No one even remembers the "nuclear deal" now. We still need to survive long enough to get there. And to reach discussions on the nuclear issue, the parties need to agree at least on the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is back under blockade. Washington and Tehran may label what is happening in the strait however they wish, but in reality, nearly no vessel wants to take risks right now. Therefore, traffic through Hormuz has again come to a halt, and the Americans have imposed a new blockade on Iranian shipping. It was also reported yesterday that Iran's allies, the Houthis, launched a large-scale strike against Saudi Arabia and threatened to blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked and Bab-el-Mandeb joins in, oil prices could soar to $150-$200 per barrel. In our opinion, the world needs to learn how to do without energy supplies from the Middle East, and the countries in the Middle East need to learn how to export energy without relying on maritime routes.
It is worth noting that the market has reacted little to the new escalation in the Middle East. Why? We have discussed this many times before. The shelf life of this factor has long expired. The market cannot trade based on war in the region for months or years. However, war in the region can also provoke market movements through other factors. For example, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait also becomes involved, it is clear that oil prices will skyrocket, and inflation will rise along with them. In this case, central banks will have to take "hawkish" measures, and the market will pay the most attention to the Fed. Thus, the U.S. dollar might continue to rise not due to geopolitics but due to the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. Although we honestly do not believe in this scenario, considering the market has already priced in all bullish factors for the dollar.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of July 15 is 54 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1372 and 1.1480 on Wednesday. The upper regression channel is directed downward, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold territory and has formed two bullish divergences, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.
The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend, presumably a correction within a global upward trend, as is clearly seen on the daily or weekly timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, first geopolitics and then the Fed's hawkish stance have provided strong support for the U.S. currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider short positions targeting 1.1372 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions with targets of 1.1475 and 1.1536 are relevant. Bears are currently extremely strong for no visible reason.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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