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06.07.202609:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 6. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 161.24 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Last Friday marked a period of calm in the financial markets, which is not surprising given the approach of Independence Day in the United States. Before major holidays, it is common to see a decline in business activity: many market participants prefer to take a break, lock in profits, or simply rest. This, in turn, naturally reduces trading volumes and, as a result, volatility.

However, with the opening of today's Asian session, pressure on the yen returned, and all regulatory interventions at the end of last week were erased. Considering that traders are just beginning to return to active trading after the holiday break, volatility could remain quite high. Various minor attempts by the central bank to intervene in the yen's exchange rate have not yielded the desired results, so it is possible that the Bank of Japan will show much more aggression in strengthening the yen this week. For this reason, be extremely cautious when buying USD/JPY at the current highs.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 162.27 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 162.56 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 162.56, I plan to exit from long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 162.05 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth towards opposing levels of 162.27 and 162.55.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 162.05 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.72, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Sellers may return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could serve as a trigger. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 162.27 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decline to opposing levels of 162.05 and 161.72.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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