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02.07.202609:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 2. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1387 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 pips.

The speech by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and weak labor market data from ADP were the main triggers for the sharp drop in the U.S. dollar and the strengthening of the euro. Warsh emphasized in his statement that the rapid decline in energy prices creates new opportunities for the central bank to adopt a more flexible and thoughtful strategy for future key rates. This position immediately affected the dollar's value, which noticeably lost weight, reflecting new market expectations.

Today, the first half of the day features only the release of the Eurozone unemployment rate for May. It is expected that the figure will remain at the previous level. However, any deviation from forecasts, even minimal, could provoke short-term volatility, though it will likely be quickly offset in the absence of other significant news.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought at around 1.1403 (green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 1.1432. At 1.1432, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after positive reports from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1381 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposing levels of 1.1403 and 1.1432 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1381 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1348, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if there is poor performance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1403 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.1381 and 1.1348 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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