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The GBP/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Wednesday, just as it has throughout the current week. The British pound is suffering from the same ailment as the euro – low volatility. In recent days, market activity has dropped to minimal values, so strong trending movements are unlikely at this time, despite the two central bank meetings this week and the important inflation report in the UK.
Incidentally, the UK inflation report was completely ignored by the market yesterday. Although the consumer price index did not accelerate as forecast and remained at 2.8%, the British pound showed no discomfort. Although over the past weeks and months, the British currency has been inclined to decline due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the market did not sell off the pound, even as the probability of the Bank of England tightening monetary policy in 2026 has nearly dropped to zero for the second consecutive time. This means the market currently has reasons to sell dollars (the war between Iran and the U.S. may realistically end), but it is not doing so. Yesterday, the market had local reasons to sell the British pound, which we didn't see either. The conclusion? There is a lull in the market.
Today, the BoE will summarize the results of its meeting, and the only intrigue is how many members of the Monetary Policy Committee will vote for a rate hike. From our perspective, it will be no more than two, which is confirmed by official forecasts. However, two "hawks" among nine members is sparse and insufficient to expect their number to increase over time to five. At every BoE meeting in 2026, at least one or two officials voted for a rate hike. Their votes do not impact the overall situation. Now, with inflation in the UK either declining or not accelerating for the second consecutive month and the Middle Eastern conflict potentially ending officially on Friday, there are no grounds for tightening.
Inflation can be considered elevated, but in the UK, it stands at 2.8%, while in the U.S., it is at 4.2%. The Fed is also remaining silent, hoping the issue will resolve itself. Therefore, we cannot say that there is currently a dollar trend, because that is not the case (looking at the daily and weekly charts). We cannot claim that the dollar is expected to see strong growth for the remainder of the year (without geopolitical support, this is unlikely). We also cannot assert that the British pound must show significant growth, as there are few reasons to do so. Thus, on the 4-hour timeframe, we will likely continue to observe alternating trends, while on the daily chart, we will see a flat trend. In our view, the next downward correction against the global trend should have completed long ago, but the market is in no hurry. It is important to understand that a stable exchange rate is also good and beneficial for many banks, companies, and corporations.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days as of June 18 is 62 pips, considered "medium" for the pound/dollar pair. On Thursday, June 18, we expect the pair to move within the range bounded by levels 1.3332 and 1.3456. The upper linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a potential end to the downward trend.
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. However, 2026 is proving to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3456 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be taken with targets of 1.3332 and 1.3306. Market conditions frequently change, and the market continues to track geopolitical news predominantly, which is not uniform.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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