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Bitcoin fell below $61,000 yesterday, and Ethereum tested the level of $1,600. All these points to a very grim picture currently seen in the cryptocurrency market.
Any signs of growth and correction are immediately perceived by traders as reasons to sell.
But there is also a positive aspect. According to CryptoQuant, the share of Bitcoin supply that is at a loss on a 7-day moving average has reached 50%—the highest level in 2026. This means that half of all coins in circulation are now held by holders who bought them at prices higher than the current one. Historically, such levels above 50% have coincided with periods of market capitulation: the moment when selling pressure begins to wane because everyone who wanted and could realize a loss has already done so. Simply put, there are no sellers left—and the market begins to find a bottom.
The signal appeared in a context that makes it particularly significant. After four weeks of continuous outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the market lost $5.4 billion in institutional capital. Bitcoin has broken below $60,000 and is targeting $53,000—the average purchase price for investors, which the CEO of CryptoQuant has termed the historical point of completion for bearish cycles. Strategy has once again returned to purchases, adding another 1,550 BTC to its balance.
Of course, it's premature to say that the market has turned and that a strong pump will now follow, but the first signs of a complete end to the bearish cycle are emerging.
Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $61,600, targeting a rise to the level of $62,600. At around $62,600, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $61,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $61,600 and $62,600.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $61,200, targeting a decline to the level of $60,400. At around $60,400, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $61,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $61,100 and $60,400.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $1,636, targeting a rise to the level of $1,668. At around $1,668, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,618 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $1,636 and $1,668.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $1,618, targeting a decline to the level of $1,582. At around $1,582, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,636 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $1,618 and $1,582.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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