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The GBP/USD pair did not show any interesting movements throughout Monday. There were no significant news events during the day, so the market paused, at least until Wednesday or until news from the Middle East that is not based on rumors or speculation. As a result, the pair's decline following Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report quickly came to an end. Overall, the U.S. dollar has shown decent growth in recent weeks, but on higher timeframes, it is clear that this growth is not as strong as it appears. In 2026, the American currency will have support, but primarily due to geopolitical events. Recent data on the U.S. economy were encouraging, but overall, the market remains quite skeptical of the dollar due to Donald Trump's protectionist policies. In our view, any growth in the American currency under Trump is purely corrective. Traders are left to wait for the current correction to conclude.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday, neither of which can be deemed good. Volatility on Monday was low, and the British pound moved sideways for most of the day. Thus, the sell signal in the 1.3319-1.3331 area may have resulted in a small loss for beginner traders. The long position from the same area at best brought in 10-15 pips of profit.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend, as the geopolitical situation remains consistently poor, and the ascending trend line has been breached. However, without a full resumption of the war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect the growth it saw in February-March. Individual events can still prompt further strengthening (as happened on Friday), but we do not believe the market will trigger a new wave of risk aversion towards the dollar. The dollar under Trump is itself considered a risk asset.
On Tuesday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.3259-1.3267 if the price breaks below the 1.3319-1.3331 area. A price bounce from the area of 1.3319-1.3331 would allow for long positions with targets of 1.3380-1.3386.
On the 5-minute timeframe, current levels to trade are 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK or the U.S., so we can expect another boring day today, with low volatility and sideways movement.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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