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Review of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3329 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 25 points.
Unfortunately, there are no U.S. economic releases scheduled for the second half of the day, so traders' attention will shift to unscheduled comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, as well as statements from Trump concerning the conflict in the Middle East. The market is likely to react with heightened sensitivity to any signals related to monetary policy. Any hints of a more hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials could trigger selling pressure on the British pound and strengthen the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the context of relations with Iran, have also remained a significant source of uncertainty weighing on the market in recent weeks. Statements by President Trump, known for their unpredictability, could trigger sharp movements in oil markets and affect overall stability in the currency market. Any escalation of the conflict or intensification of rhetoric could spark renewed investor concerns.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3349 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3386 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3386, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move. Any rise in the pound today is likely to be limited to a modest correction.
Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3319 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3349 and 1.3386 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.3319 level (the red line on the chart), which is expected to trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3278, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move. Selling pressure on the pound may return at any moment today.
Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3349 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3319 and 1.3278 can be expected.
Chart Notes:
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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