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The GBP/USD currency pair showed a tendency towards minimal growth throughout Monday, while geopolitical news continued to flow like a broken faucet, and the prospects for the GBP/USD pair worsen day by day. Once again, it can be confidently stated that the potential growth of the American currency is largely linked to geopolitics. Recall that in recent weeks, the market has been generally driven by positive sentiment over a possible ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. As positive as it could be. The conflict parties regularly violate previously reached temporary ceasefires, and the signing or even the agreement on a deal is being delayed. Nevertheless, the market held onto hope. However, as time goes on, it becomes increasingly clear that Trump's deal is unlikely to materialize anytime soon.
Against the backdrop of dwindling geopolitical hopes for peace, the American currency could show moderate growth in the coming weeks. Other factors continue to be ignored by traders, thus they hold little significance. Nevertheless, it should be noted that market hopes of a Bank of England monetary policy tightening have also collapsed. Inflation in the UK slowed in April, so there is no reason to expect aggressive action from the central bank. It may be a coincidence, and the consumer price index may surge upward again by May; however, it should be understood that no central bank in the world wants to return to a tightening policy. Why?
Because a tightening policy means inflation spiraling out of control again, and for the past five years, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England have been trying to tame the uncontrolled price growth spurred by measures taken by those same central banks in response to the economic downturn following the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, when choosing between "wait a bit longer" and "raise the rate right now," the BoE will undoubtedly choose the first option. The market did not expect inflation in Great Britatin to begin slowing down amid the energy crisis and had already factored in future tightening in the British currency. Now it is forced to unwind its positions on the pound.
Separately, we should mention the Friday data on the US labor market. We have stated many times that 100,000 Nonfarm Payrolls per month is very, very low for the US economy. Much less than what was created during Joe Biden's presidency, and far fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate from rising. However, the market does not react to the relationship between the actual value and the positive. It reacts to the actual value in relation to the forecast. Therefore, even 30,000 new jobs against a forecast of 20,000 is a positive figure that can support the dollar. We believe that this week, the probability of the American currency rising is higher than that of falling, unless the geopolitical backdrop shifts dramatically towards peace between Iran and the US.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 69 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Tuesday, June 2, we expect movement within the range bounded by levels 1.3374 and 1.3512. The upper channel of linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has not formed any signals recently.
The GBP/USD currency pair continues to recover after a 300-pip drop. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to show long-term growth. However, 2026 looks super positive for the dollar. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3550 and 1.3611 may be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short trades can be made with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306 on geopolitical grounds. The market situation is often changing, with the market continuing to monitor predominantly geopolitical news, which is not uniform.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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