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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3508 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.
According to the data, the UK economy posted unexpected growth last month, exceeding economists' forecasts. Instead of the anticipated contraction, the economy expanded by 0.3%. This positive news came as a pleasant surprise for analysts and market participants, although it did not trigger buying of the pound. The fact that GDP increased rather than declined as expected is an important signal. It may indicate that various sectors of the economy are performing better than anticipated.
Traders will next focus on fresh U.S. retail sales data. This monthly indicator traditionally serves as a barometer of consumer activity and, consequently, the overall state of the economy. Particular attention is paid to trends across different retail segments, as analysts examine not only the headline figures but also data across various categories of goods and services.
Alongside the macroeconomic data analysis, speeches by representatives of the Federal Open Market Committee will also attract attention. Comments from Schmid and Hammack regarding inflation, unemployment, and their assessment of risks to economic stability will be closely analyzed for hints about possible further tightening of Federal Reserve policy.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3525 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3570 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3570, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Pound growth today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.
Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3508 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3525 and 1.3570 can then be expected.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3508 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3485, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pound will return today if strong U.S. data is released.
Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3525 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3508 and 1.3458 can then be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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