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The price test at 156.13 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 156.53.
After the Bank of Japan's interventions concluded, albeit temporarily, the yen came under renewed pressure due to diminishing prospects for a peace agreement between the US and Iran. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to seek refuge in more reliable assets, and the Japanese yen, among them, usually strengthens. However, in this case, the opposite trend is observed. This is partly because the yen, despite its reputation as a safe-haven currency, is sensitive to global sentiment. The declining likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict signals rising risks that could further deepen the energy crisis, negatively impacting the Japanese economy and the yen.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point at 156.48 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.86 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.86, I intend to exit my long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips from that level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.29 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposing levels of 156.48 and 156.86 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.29 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.91 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move from the level). Sellers may return at any moment, just needing a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.48 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposing levels of 156.29 and 155.91 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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