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Trade review and tips for trading the euro
The test of the 1.1723 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 33 points.
The first half of the day could have been relatively calm if not for the news about a suspected Iranian attack on a U.S. military ship in the Strait of Hormuz area. The sharp weakening of the euro was driven by market participants' concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East. However, the lack of confirmation from official U.S. sources halted the decline in risk assets, including the euro. It is clear that traders will continue to closely monitor news flows, trying to assess the real level of threat and its potential consequences.
In addition, during the second half of the day, attention will be focused on several important U.S. macroeconomic data releases. One of the key indicators to watch is the change in factory orders. This indicator reflects activity in the industrial sector, which is an important component of overall economic dynamics. Positive momentum in factory orders may signal growing demand for goods, which in turn has a favorable impact on the economy. Alongside economic data, particular attention will be paid to remarks from Federal Open Market Committee member John Williams. As a representative of the Federal Reserve leadership, his comments are often seen as an indicator of future monetary policy. His assessment of the current inflation situation and its outlook may be of particular interest.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1725 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1779. At 1.1779, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1690 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1725 and 1.1779 can be expected.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1690 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1646, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1725 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1690 and 1.1646 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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