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04.05.202606:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on May 4? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. In Germany and the Eurozone, the second estimates of the manufacturing sector activity indices for April will be released, but these are absolutely secondary data. Thus, we can expect a "boring Monday" today. Even over the weekend, no significant geopolitical events were reported, and it seems that Washington and Tehran are conducting talks for the sake of appearances. The chances of reaching a sustainable peace agreement remain extremely low.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Monday, we can only note Christine Lagarde's speech. However, last week saw the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings on Thursday. We learned that the Federal Reserve is not inclined to change monetary policy in 2026, while the ECB and BoE have adopted a wait-and-see approach and are not overly concerned about rising inflation, expecting an end to the conflict in the Middle East and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB and BoE are prepared to raise key rates this summer if acute necessity arises, while the Fed is not. It is unlikely that Christine Lagarde will provide fundamentally new information just three days after the central bank's meeting.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to astonish with its level of uncertainty, leading central banks to hesitate before making important monetary policy decisions. The war in the Middle East may resume if a deal between Iran and the US is not signed. A deal cannot be signed if Iran does not even agree to a second round of negotiations, especially given that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked to Iran. The country's oil exports are blocked, and this could trigger the resumption of the conflict.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly again. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3587-1.3598. The correction in the euro continues, while the British pound has already broken its local high and may continue to rise. Upward trends are maintained for both currency pairs.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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