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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.63%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.59%.
Yesterday's trading in global financial markets showed mixed trends, but this morning brought positive signals that have injected cautious optimism among investors. US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran, even in the absence of immediate peace talks, has become the key factor shaping market sentiment.
Already this morning, futures on US stock indices showed strong gains. Investors interpreted the ceasefire extension as a reduction in geopolitical risk, removing one of the main sources of uncertainty weighing on the global economy. This trend is likely to continue, since removing potential escalation risks opens the door to a more predictable, stable economic backdrop.
Meanwhile, oil prices moved in the opposite direction. The drop in crude can be attributed to reduced fears of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf. The easing of geopolitical risks tied to the potential conflict normalizes oil market supply, which in turn exerts downward pressure on prices.
Futures on the S&P 500 rose by about 0.6%, and futures on the Nasdaq 100 gained about 0.7%. European futures recovered earlier losses and were up roughly 0.1% after reports that Iran had received signs the US was prepared to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Global Brent crude fell by 0.9% to $97.63 per barrel, and the dollar index eased by 0.3%. Asian equity markets were down about 0.5%.
As noted above, Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, accusing Tehran's leadership of deep internal divisions that, in his view, scuppered talks. The US will refrain from fresh strikes but will maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where navigation remains severely constrained.
"If they want to sit at the table and discuss and find a political solution, they will find us ready," Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted the country's UN ambassador Amir-Saeid Iravani as saying. "If they want war then Iran is also ready."
An apparent ceasefire broadly supports risk assets, so a resumed stock rally is a realistic prospect.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,125. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a surge to $7,138. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $7,156, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,106. A break below that level would likely push the instrument back to $7,087 and could open the way to $7,066.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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