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21.04.202609:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 21. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen:

The price test at 158.83 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 pips.

Yesterday, trading activity in the USD/JPY pair left much to be desired. Amid uncertainty in the Middle East, traders were particularly cautious. The main catalyst for the yen's turnaround in the second half of the day was Iran's changing position. Morning statements that were marked by a decisive rejection of further negotiations gave way to more flexible rhetoric by midday. This indicated a possible readiness for dialogue from Tehran, which alleviated fears of further escalation in the standoff.

However, it should be emphasized that the situation in the Middle East remains tenuous. Traders will continue to closely monitor further developments and any new statements from key participants. Any shift in sentiment or actions could quickly lead to renewed fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 158.95 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.21 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 159.21, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.76 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 158.95 and 159.21 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 158.76 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.48 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.95 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 158.76 and 158.48 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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