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20.04.202608:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen:

The price test at 158.96 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair declined by more than 90 pips.

The yen rose sharply last Friday, reflecting the market's reaction to the potential resolution of one of the most acute geopolitical conflicts. The news of Iran's readiness to keep the Strait of Hormuz open until the ceasefire agreement expires generated a wave of optimism, as this could significantly reduce tensions in the Persian Gulf. However, following the attack on the Iranian trading vessel in the Persian Gulf by US forces, the dollar demonstrated a sharp rise today.

It appears that missed diplomatic opportunities have undermined the peace process in the near term, and the postponement of negotiations suggests that disagreements between Washington and Tehran are likely to persist, if not intensify. All of this indicates that the US dollar may continue to strengthen against the Japanese yen in the near future.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.05 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.50 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.50, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). It is advisable to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 158.89 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 159.05 and 159.50 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 158.89 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.56 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.05 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 158.89 and 158.56 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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