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The GBP/USD currency pair, like the EUR/USD pair, was unable to extend its upward movement on Wednesday, as it tested the Senkou Span B line on the daily timeframe but could not break through on the first attempt. We consider the current pause to be purely technical. The British pound has quickly and easily recovered more than 50% after a drop of nearly 700 points, without any significant geopolitical factors. For this reason, we believe that the geopolitical factor, if not entirely pushed to the background, is at least in transition.
What has the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz meant for Donald Trump? In fact, not much. Iranian vessels cannot leave or enter ports, and foreign ships are also blocked. But what does this accomplish? It limits financial flows to Iran from oil sales. The blockade has lasted for just two days. How long does Trump plan to keep his military ships in the Persian Gulf before they are targeted by Iranian missiles and drones? Currently, all media are filled with headlines that negotiations between Iran and the U.S. could resume today. Therefore, Iran may be refraining from striking U.S. naval vessels solely because of a fleeting hope of negotiating with Washington. However, such a situation cannot last forever. If Iran is unable to sell oil to the East, it will sooner or later start attacking the U.S. Navy.
Trump likely understands this well. If Iran strikes U.S. ships, Washington will have to respond in kind. But how can this be done when Trump himself says the war is over and that all goals have been achieved? How can this be done when continued war would diminish the Republican Party's chances for victory in the elections in November? This leads to the conclusion: Donald Trump is interested in not escalating the situation in the Middle East, preventing a new outbreak of conflict, and retracting U.S. ships to their permanent bases. We believe this is exactly how things will unfold.
Some analysts have also reported that Trump, by implementing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has struck a blow against China. However, Iranian oil accounts for only 8% of China's total oil imports. Eight percent is quite a lot, but we think China can manage this problem without too much difficulty. Thus, the entire military operation in the Middle East has proven effectively pointless, while Trump continues to try to put a positive spin on a bad situation. It is worth noting that Iran, which has lived under global sanctions for about 50 years and cannot sell oil on world markets, will somehow manage a month-long halt. Or will American ships be patrolling the Strait indefinitely? Iranian drones have a different opinion.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 81 pips, which is considered "average." On Thursday, April 16, we expect movements within a range bounded by 1.3488 and 1.3650. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a possible downward pullback.
S1 – 1.3550
S2 – 1.3489
S3 – 1.3428
R1 – 1.3611
R2 – 1.3672
R3 – 1.3733
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its recovery after two months of geopolitical turmoil. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the U.S. economy; therefore, we do not expect the dollar to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3306 based on geopolitical grounds. In recent months, almost all news and events have been negative for the British pound, leading to a prolonged downward trend. Geopolitics remains a key factor, but its influence is waning.
Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it indicates a strong trend.
The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should proceed.
Murray levels serve as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair is likely to trade over the next day, based on current volatility readings.
The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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