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14.04.202613:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on April 14th (U.S. Session)

Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 159.07 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 points.

Today's U.S. trading session is expected to be active, as market participants focus on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. Of particular interest are the core Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices. In the context of high oil prices, these figures will serve as an important reference point for assessing inflation trends in the United States. In light of recent Federal Reserve statements, any deviation from forecasts—whether higher or lower inflation—could significantly affect market expectations regarding future Fed actions, especially concerning possible changes in the key interest rate.

In addition, speeches are scheduled from two influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — Austan D. Goolsbee and Michael S. Barr. Their comments on the state of the economy, inflation outlook, and future monetary policy direction will be closely analyzed.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.01 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 159.60 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.60, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A rise in the pair today is possible if economic data is strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.70 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward 159.01 and 159.60 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 158.70 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.32, where I will exit shorts and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return today if data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.01 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 158.70 and 158.32 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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