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Oil prices have risen steadily for the third consecutive day. This rise is largely fueled by the escalation of rhetoric from President Donald Trump, who has once again intensified his threats towards Iran. In his statements, the American leader emphasized his readiness to resort to destroying key infrastructure in the country if the proposed conditions are not met within the established timeframe.
Amid these geopolitical tensions, Brent crude oil prices have surpassed the $111 per barrel mark, demonstrating a 0.7% increase at the end of the previous trading session. In turn, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices approached $116, closing at the highest level since June 2022—an indicator of significant demand revival and risk perception in the market.
On Monday, President Trump expressed optimism regarding the negotiations with Iran, describing them as "going well." He also highlighted the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as "a very important priority." However, despite the assurances of the American leader, the market's reaction, reflected in sustained oil price rises, indicates that market participants remain skeptical of a quick resolution and are likely factoring in potential supply disruptions.
Iran has warned that in response to such strikes, it will intensify its own attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf—a move that could exacerbate the global fuel shortage and harm the world economy. The ongoing war, now in its sixth week, has already significantly shaken the oil markets, causing a serious supply shock.
If Trump moves into a "devastation" mode, and Iran continues retaliatory attacks that are more devastating and larger in scale, oil prices are likely to continue rising, approaching $120. As the war drags on, signs of growing concerns about short-term supplies are also emerging. The price difference between nearby WTI oil contracts on Monday at one point approached $15.50 per barrel, marking one of the highest levels recorded.
Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $118.88. This will allow targeting $120.08, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be the $124.86 area. In the event of an oil price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $113.36. If this is successful, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, potentially driving oil down to a low of $106.83 with prospects of falling to $100.40.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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