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The GBP/USD currency pair traded at its lowest level in the past four months on Monday. Over the last two months, the British currency has depreciated by 650 pips, which can be viewed in various ways. On the one hand, it's not an excessively large movement. A mere 300 pips rise (a 50% correction) would bring the pound close to its highs over the past four years. Additionally, it's likely that nearly all traders understand that the sole reason for the US dollar's strong growth is geopolitics. If this factor were removed from the equation, the pound could be trading around the level of $1.40.
Unfortunately, Donald Trump's plans have differed significantly from our own and from those of most traders. Recall that last year and in January of this year, many leading experts predicted further depreciation of the US currency. Thus, we anticipated further growth in the GBP/USD pair in 2026. However, Trump deemed it necessary to urgently disarm Iran right now. And if that doesn't happen, nuclear missiles could be flying towards America by tomorrow. Judge for yourself how substantial such fears were.
Over the past two months, we have learned the following about the state of the American economy. The labor market remains stalled and is much closer to a "bad" state than to a "good" one. The unemployment rate has been rising for four years. The US economy slowed to 0.7% growth in the fourth quarter. Trump lost a court case regarding global trade tariffs. Americans have realized they were robbed of $150 billion by their own government. The Federal Reserve stood its ground in its battle against Trump. Jerome Powell has not left his post, and the Fed is still not planning to lower rates as the Father of the American Nation desires.
In his trade war against the entire world, Trump has achieved absolutely nothing. The trade balance remains negative, the US national debt continues to grow at hyper speeds, and the federal budget remains in deficit. However, Trump has turned half the world against him. Foreign consumers increasingly refuse to purchase American goods due to Trump's policies.
Celebrities, investors, and businessmen are leaving America. And the S&P 500 index can rise as much as it wants; at this moment, America no longer looks like the country every resident of the planet wants to enter. If we were to ask for the conflicts Trump has resolved over the past year, most would likely struggle to come up with an answer. However, the war in Iran would readily come to mind when discussing conflicts that Trump ignited. And yet the American president still seeks a Nobel Peace Prize. One can only ask, "For what?" For the doubled prices of oil and gas? For the blocked Strait of Hormuz? For the destroyed infrastructure in the Middle East?
Thus, even considering the war in Iran, we see no reason for the dollar to rise. The market still uses the American currency as a "safe haven."
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 101 pips, which is considered "average." On Tuesday, April 7, we expect the pair to trade within a range between 1.3134 and 1.3336. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the potential completion of the downward trend. However, geopolitics is currently more important than technical signals.
The GBP/USD pair has continued its downward movement for a month and a half, but its long-term prospects have not changed. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy; therefore, we do not expect the US currency to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. When the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.3134 and 1.3123, based on geopolitical factors. In recent months, almost all news and events have turned against the British pound, contributing to a prolonged bearish trend. Geopolitics remains the key factor.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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