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According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, there is a significant weakening of demand for Bitcoin, despite ongoing activity from institutional investors. The report indicates that spot demand for the leading cryptocurrency remains in a phase of deep contraction. A more worrying signal is the sharp decline in visible demand growth over the past 30 days, which points to a market imbalance.
The current conjuncture suggests that selling pressure continues to outweigh buying interest. This may indicate market participants' uncertainty or the presence of other factors restraining active Bitcoin purchases, despite the inflow of institutional capital.
The drop in overall demand, including from retail investors, can be caused by various reasons. These include, for example, concerns related to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Despite interest from large players, their investments may not be enough to offset the shortfall in demand at a broader level.
Yes, Bitcoin purchases by exchange-traded funds and by Michael Saylor's Strategy fund continue, but this is insufficient to ease the pressure. CryptoQuant reports that 30-day ETF purchases surged last month to about 50,000 BTC — the highest level since October 2025 — while 30-day accumulation at Strategy amounted to roughly 44,000 BTC.
Large Bitcoin holders, or whales, have reduced their holdings to 188,000 Bitcoin over the past year, the firm says. After buying over 200,000 Bitcoin in 2024, whales began trimming positions from mid-2025, with the pace of reductions accelerating in late 2025 and early 2026.
Historically, sustained negative accumulation by large players coincides with periods of prolonged price weakness, which is what we are now observing in the market.
Trading recommendations:
Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $68,000, which opens a direct route to $69,600, and from there to $71,400. The most distant target is the high around $72,500; breaching that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $66,300. A fall below that area could quickly push BTC toward $64,900. The furthest target there would be around $62,600.
Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,105 opens a direct route to $2,175. The most distant target is the high near $2,238; breaching that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at $2,037. A drop below that area could quickly send ETH toward $1,968. The furthest target there would be around $1,911.
What we see on the chart:
- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;
- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;
- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;
- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.
A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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