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The test of the price at 1.1535 occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential.
Yesterday, financial players once again disregarded the positive release regarding the state of the US labor force. Although the claims figures were quite good, traders were not eager to buy the dollar; instead, they focused on the Middle East situation.
Today, European trading venues are completely closed in observance of Good Friday, leading to reduced volatility. Among the economic news today, only the report on industrial production dynamics in France is expected. Despite the significance of this indicator for the French economy, its influence on the broader European markets during the holiday will be minimal. In the absence of macroeconomic data, market participants are likely to focus on the news flow. Geopolitical events and central bank statements can affect investor sentiment, even amid low trading volume.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1554 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1576. At the level of 1.1576, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will rise sharply today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1525 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1554 and 1.1576 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1525 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1500, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair could return today if data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1554 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1525 and 1.1500 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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