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I would also like to remind you that Donald Trump previously stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not an American problem. According to the White House leader, it is a matter for the countries that need the Strait of Hormuz for oil transport. He once again criticized NATO countries and the European Union for their passivity in the war with Iran, although personally, I do not understand why EU or NATO countries should get involved in a slaughter. Just because Trump decided it? Let's remember that it was America and Israel that fired the first shots at Iran. Therefore, there is no talk of an attack on a NATO member country.
Meanwhile, Iran has just launched its first strikes on Amazon data centers in the Middle East. The strike targeted the Batelco headquarters in Bahrain, the largest telecommunications company in the country, which hosts Amazon's servers. As we can see, even when negotiations are underway, hostilities do not stop. Markets are currently filled with optimism, but this optimism could end very quickly if Tehran continues to strike internet communications and Trump begins military intervention on Kharg Island.
Incidentally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian noted that Washington has twice initiated attacks on Iran right during diplomatic meetings. Therefore, the existence of negotiations does not mean that the parties will reach a common denominator, nor that strikes on critical infrastructure will cease.
Based on all of the above, I draw the same conclusions as before. The conflict is still very far from being over. Negotiations may be underway, but Tehran and Washington hold radically different views. Market optimism regarding a ceasefire may end very quickly. The dollar's decline may be short-term, as may oil's. At any moment, America could strike new military and nuclear sites in Iran, which would provoke a response against critical infrastructure in the Middle East. Undoubtedly, any negotiations are better than none, and any chances for peace are better than none. However, in my view, the markets have prematurely lifted their spirits.
Currently, I expect to see only corrective wave sets for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments. Most likely, these will be a series of waves a-b-c. With a favorable turn of events, there may be series a-b-c-d-e. Only if messages start coming from both sides of the conflict, indicating real movement toward each other, will I consider a stronger strengthening of the euro and the pound. Surely, there's no smoke without fire, but at any moment, a new rain may come that douses any fire.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, has completed the formation of a downward wave set. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, my readers can expect price increases in the next week or two, with targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745, which correspond to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale. Further movements of the instrument will be entirely dependent on events in the Middle East.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an elongation in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not lead to a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to the 35-36 figures. Therefore, I believe now is a good time to buy.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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