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01.04.202608:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 1. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1481 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1519.

The US dollar demonstrated a sharp weakening against the euro after yesterday's statement from Donald Trump regarding the United States' intention to end military operations against Iran within two to three weeks. Financial markets interpreted the American leader's words as a precursor to a decrease in tensions. Such volatility in the currency market is a direct consequence of the high level of uncertainty driven by geopolitical factors. Any new statements or events related to US-Iran relations could trigger further corrections in the dollar's exchange rate.

Today, market participants will pay special attention to two key indicators: the March PMI for the manufacturing sector and February's unemployment figures. The PMI, which gauges the health of the manufacturing industry, is expected to continue weakening. Any negative signals from the manufacturing sector could heighten concerns about a possible recession in the currency bloc. At the same time, the Eurozone's unemployment report for February will be released. Stable or declining unemployment could be a positive factor, partially offsetting the weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1584 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1636. At 1.1636, I plan to exit the market and immediately sell the euro back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect euro growth only after very strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1559 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1584 and 1.1636.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1559 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1519, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return today if the reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1584 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1559 and 1.1519.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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