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On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell below $90 per barrel. Trading occurred within one of the widest intraday ranges in the modern history of the oil market.
Political uncertainty has also applied additional pressure to oil dynamics. US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that Washington and Tehran had conducted "very good and productive negotiations" for a "comprehensive and complete settlement" of the conflict. According to him, the Pentagon was instructed to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants for five days. In doing so, Trump effectively canceled his own ultimatum issued on Saturday when he threatened to "destroy" Iran's energy infrastructure if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Tehran's position was the opposite—Iranian authorities denied that any negotiations took place, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of its readiness to carry out retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure in the region in the event of aggression. This contradiction between Washington's and Tehran's statements has heightened uncertainty, keeping market participants on edge throughout the day.
On the supply side, the influence of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) large decision to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, announced on March 11, is gradually becoming apparent. The US has taken on the supply of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), distributed over approximately 120 days. Despite this, Goldman Sachs has raised its short-term price forecast for WTI to $98 per barrel in March and $105 in April, indicating that transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains at around 5% of normal volume.
On the macroeconomic front, Fed official Stephen Miran noted that it is still too early to draw conclusions about the impact of inflation on the price shock in the energy sector, and he still believes that lowering interest rates is justified to support the labor market.
From a technical perspective, despite the sharp price drop, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, with prices trading above major moving averages, including the 20-day SMA, supporting bulls.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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