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The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a nice boost on Thursday. The results of the Bank of England's March meeting were more hawkish than expected, and the central bank indicated a potential rate hike in 2026. This decision was not entirely unforeseen. With the onset of the conflict in the Middle East and the destruction of most oil-refining and gas-extraction facilities in the region, practically all traders began anticipating rising global inflation. Thus, more hawkish results could be expected from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as the Federal Reserve.
For the first time in a month and a half, the market reacted not only to positive factors for the dollar but also to positive factors for European currencies. In our view, the dollar has once again exceeded growth expectations, and if it weren't for the war in the Middle East initiated by Donald Trump, there would have been no rise in the American currency at all. But market participants have begun to flee from war and riskier assets, which has strengthened the dollar by several hundred pips. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
Therefore, we are still waiting not just for growth in the British pound but for the resumption of trends from 2022 and 2025. The American economy, thanks to Donald Trump, will continue to face significant problems for a long time, and the Fed may not even lower rates in 2026; this will not improve the situation for the dollar.
In the 5-minute time frame, two trading signals were formed yesterday. First, the pair broke through the level of 1.3307 and the Kijun-sen line, and then the area of 1.3369-1.3377 and the Senkou Span B line. By the end of the day, the level of 1.3437 was achieved. Traders could open a single long position, which yielded at least 100 pips of profit.
COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing steadily in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still dominating with... sales. However, in light of the events in the Middle East, it is no longer surprising that demand for riskier currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as seen on the weekly time frame (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a significant period, and the Fed will reduce rates regardless over the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will fall one way or another. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence, providing strong support for the US currency. According to the latest COT report (dated March 10) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group closed 10,200 BUY contracts and opened 1,200 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position for non-commercial traders decreased by another 11,400 contracts over the week.
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair has finally begun to rise, breaking the downward trend and offering real chances of recovering losses over the past month and a half. Despite the strong decline of the pair in February and March, we still view it as a correction. The daily time frame confidently signals the preservation of the upward trend. Unfortunately, geopolitics is a highly unpredictable factor that can overshadow all others, as we have witnessed recently.
For March 20, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3350) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3310) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Friday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US. Thus, Friday will show us whether the market has fully processed the geopolitical situation and is actually ready to establish an upward trend that everyone has been eagerly awaiting.
Today, traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the Kijun-sen line, targeting levels 1.1486 and 1.1426. Long positions can remain open with targets at 1.3533-1.3548, as the price has surpassed 1.3437.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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