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The price of gold is fluctuating in a narrow range around $5000 as investors assess the prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut amid inflation risks from the Middle Eastern conflict.
The uncertainty prevailing in the Middle East continues to exert upward pressure on precious metal prices, which traditionally serve as a safe haven during periods of geopolitical instability. The conflict in the region, among other factors, raises concerns about a possible rise in inflation, which in turn may boost demand for gold as a means of capital preservation.
On the other hand, expectations surrounding a possible easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve create a dampening factor. If the Fed continues to lower interest rates, this could make other, higher-yielding assets, such as bonds, more attractive to investors, thereby reducing demand for gold. Although the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, investors will closely examine the US central bank's stance on rising energy prices and the weakening labor market.
Meanwhile, the US and Israel continue their attacks, and Iran has confirmed the death of national security chief Ali Larijani. Israel previously stated that he was killed in an airstrike. Tehran also continues to strike energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf countries, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually paralyzed.
Despite a slowdown in gold's upward movement, the metal has still risen about 16% this year, as geopolitical risks and concerns about the Fed's independence continue to support demand. Concerns about stagflation—a combination of slowing growth and high inflation—could provide long-term support for gold as investors seek alternative ways to preserve value.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $5051. This would allow them to target $5137, above which a breakout may be quite challenging. The further goal would be the area around $5223. In the event of a price drop, bears will attempt to take control of $4975. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and could push gold down to a low of $4893, with the potential to reach $4835.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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