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The price test at 158.71 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test at 158.71 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, prompting the execution of Scenario #2 to buy and resulting in a rise to the target level of 159.22.
The increase in military tensions in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran, along with favorable data showing a reduction in the trade deficit and a decrease in initial jobless claims in the United States, sparked renewed demand for the dollar and a decline in the Japanese yen. The reduction in the trade deficit indicates increased competitiveness of U.S. goods and services in the international arena, as well as prospects for growth in domestic manufacturing. The decrease in initial jobless claims is a clear sign of strengthening labor markets, which, in turn, stimulate consumer spending and contribute to overall economic growth. These factors, taken together, created a favorable environment for strengthening the U.S. currency yesterday.
Today, in the absence of significant fundamental data from Japan, pressure on the yen is likely to persist.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches an entry point around 159.53 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.91 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.91, I intend to exit the long positions and sell immediately on the rebound (expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.28 twice and the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 159.53 and 159.91.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 159.28 (red line on the chart) is breached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.90 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 159.53 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 159.28 and 158.90.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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