A lenda da equipe InstaSpot!
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The test of the 1.3335 price level occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I missed the pound's upward movement. However, selling on the rebound from 1.3474 made it possible to capture about 20 points of profit.
The absence of economic data from the United Kingdom led to another wave of growth in the British pound against the dollar. In the information vacuum caused by the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the country, traders focused on other factors supporting the strengthening of sterling. Among them is the weakening of the U.S. currency in global markets due to the possibility that the war involving the United States in the Middle East may soon come to an end.
Traders will next focus on U.S. existing home sales figures and the ADP Employment Report. These indicators are expected to make significant adjustments to current market sentiment. Existing home sales provide a clear picture of consumer demand and household confidence in the U.S. economy. Growth in this indicator may strengthen expectations of stable economic expansion, while a decline could raise concerns about a slowdown. At the same time, the weekly ADP employment report will provide updated information on hiring dynamics in the private sector. Any discrepancy between forecasts and actual figures may trigger increased volatility and lead to a reassessment of risk assets.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3471 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3507 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3507, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move. Growth in the pound today can be expected after weak U.S. statistics.
Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3443 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward 1.3471 and 1.3507 can then be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3443 level is updated (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3416, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pound could return at any moment today.
Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3471 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.3443 and 1.3416 may then occur.
Chart Explanation
Important for Beginner Forex Traders
Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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