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The EUR/USD currency pair traded chaotically on Thursday, changing direction frequently. During the day, only two more or less significant macroeconomic reports were published in the US and the Eurozone, and only the first of these could have influenced market sentiment. The Eurozone retail sales report was predictably worse than expected, which may have triggered a decline in the European currency in the first half of the day. However, we still believe that the macroeconomic impact was either minimal or nonexistent. The retail sales report is not strong enough to drive market reaction throughout most of the day. The US unemployment claims report showed a neutral figure, so it could not, in theory, influence the dollar's exchange rate. As for the war in Iran, no fundamentally new developments emerged. The participants in the conflict continue missile strikes, which is nothing new, given the events of the past week.
On the 5-minute timeframe, five trading signals were formed on Thursday. All five were around 1.1584-1.1591, indicating sideways movement and confusion. None of the signals reached the nearest target, so beginner traders could only act on the first two. The buy signals during the European trading session duplicated each other, so only one trade should have been opened for them. The only sell signal during the American session proved false.
On the hourly timeframe, the downward trend has resumed, but only "thanks" to the new war in the Middle East. At the beginning of 2026, a long-term upward trend resumed, so we expect new medium-term growth for the euro. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the US currency; however, the market's main focus currently is geopolitics rather than the economy.
On Friday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1584-1.1591 area, targeting 1.1527-1.1531. A bounce from the area of 1.1584-1.1591 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider are 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, and 1.2092-1.2104. On Friday, an important event in the Eurozone is the final GDP estimate for the fourth quarter. In the US, more important reports, including Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and retail sales, will be released.
Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.
Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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