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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has taken on a less desirable form, but it still raises no major questions. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January last year; only the internal wave structure is occasionally adjusted. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of global wave 4 (lower chart). If this assumption is correct, wave 5 is currently developing, and it may turn out to be quite extended, with targets reaching up to the 1.25 level.
The internal structure of the presumed wave 5 is not entirely clear (upper chart). The upward wave sequence cannot be considered impulsive due to rather strong corrective waves. Therefore, at this stage it is interpreted as a-b-c-d-e. However, if wave 5 becomes extended, its internal structure will also likely be complex. If so, the wave count may undergo further adjustments. In any case, I expect EUR/USD to resume its upward movement, and the corrective a-b-c-d-e structure already appears largely complete.
On Wednesday, EUR/USD gained about 20 basis points, although most of the modest recovery actually occurred on Tuesday evening. In total, from the latest low, the euro has rebounded by about 100 points — which, amid turmoil in financial and energy markets, can be considered a small victory. Today, market participants refrained from emotional buying of the U.S. dollar and began acting more rationally. Familiar factors that drove the dollar's decline throughout 2025 are gradually returning to the forefront — such as weakness in the U.S. labor market, dovish Federal Reserve policy prospects, and Trump's trade war.
Let us examine these factors one by one. Today, the U.S. released the February ADP report, which showed an increase of 63,000 new jobs. Market expectations stood at 50,000, so many participants could have viewed the figure positively, potentially boosting demand for the U.S. currency. However, the dollar did not strengthen, suggesting that the bearish impulse may have ended. Moreover, 63,000 is still a low figure, even if it exceeded expectations. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the labor market has recovered to pre-Trump-era levels. It is worth recalling that throughout 2025, approximately 180,000 jobs were created in the United States in total. During the final year of Biden's presidency (objectively the weakest), around 120,000 jobs were created each month.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues forming an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors behind the dollar's decline. The targets of the current trend segment may extend toward the 1.25 level. At present, I believe the pair remains within global wave 5, and I expect price growth in the first half of 2026. The corrective a-b-c-d-e structure could conclude at any moment, as it already appears convincing. I consider it reasonable to search for areas and levels to open new long positions with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci levels.
On a smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is somewhat unconventional, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such situations do occur. I emphasize that it is better to identify clear structures on charts rather than rigidly adhering to every individual wave. At this point, the upward wave structure raises no doubts.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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